Dead heat

A poll released today by the Washington Post confirms what the Commonwealth Coalition found back in July: When voters have information about the entire amendment, support for it plummets.

The vote stands at a dead heat when the arguments for and against are presented. This is the actual question:

(Supporters say the measure would mean that same-sex marriages would never be approved or recognized in the Commonwealth of Virginia.) (Opponents say the proposed language is too broad, and would endanger contracts made between unmarried heterosexual couples.)

With these arguments in mind, if the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Amendment One?

When simply asked about the language of the amendment, without hearing the arguments for and against, voters support it 53% to 43%, which still reflects a trend of eroding support.

Several political scientists who have studied state ballot measures said the polling data from Virginia appeared to defy expectations, given the commonwealth’s reputation as a conservative state.

“This is quite a surprise,” said Daniel A. Smith, an associate professor of political science at the University of Florida. “In an ostensibly conservative state like Virginia, you’d expect to see the numbers up around 60 or 70 percent.”

What does this mean? That our message doesn’t have to be complicated. Simply hearing the opposing arguments is enough to completely close a 10 point gap. This amendment can be defeated, and we know exactly what we need to do to defeat it.

What would it be worth to you to defeat this amendment? Two hours of your time?

Contact us | Contact the Commonwealth Coaliiton

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